|
|
|
|
|
|
Draft Technical Specifications for a Sustainable Human Civilization Without vision, the people
perish! Franklin D.
Roosevelt It is vital that we as a movement share a vision of where
we are headed, what we are aiming toward, what successful transformation
might look like. A wide variety of issues blend together in a dynamic
interactive fashion, making it difficult to point to any one fundamental
problem. The last para of the Limits to Growth summery referenced above, states:
The two missing ingredients are a realistic, long-term goal that can
guide mankind to the equilibrium society and the human will to achieve that
goal. Without such a goal and a commitment to it, short-term concerns will
generate the exponential growth that drives the world system toward the
limits of the earth and ultimate collapse.
Today there is no shared vision of a sustainable
global future. And so today’s governments follow the now unrealistic quest
for everlasting growth, From a conversation on Energysoures
list, Pedro of Havana said recently: >FOLKS, COULD IT BE THAT WHAT IS NEEDED
-HISTORICALLY, OF COURSE, NOT FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT- IS TO TRASCEND
CAPITALISM AND ARRIVE AT ANOTHER TYPE OF>SOCIETAL ORGANIZATION?
This paper is based on underlying presumptions
outlined in these brief notes: (Each note here needs links to expansion) Systems
notes: Systems 1: Gaia, the natural world in which humans
evolved, operates in an interactive self-regulating systemic fashion, with
multiple levels of systems and interacting systems: For example, each animal
or plant being one complex synergetic sub-system. Systems 2: The primary energy source that brings
both activity and order to systems is from the sun, both current and past
sunshine. Systems 3: In order for a significantly large human
civilization to coexist in a relatively benign fashion, within the Gaian mother system, it would be prudent to regulate the
sub-system of gross human-activity following the guidelines of systemic
needs. Human-activity
Growth: Activity 1: The guiding tenets of capitalism
(especially recent neo conservative agenda) have become the antithesis of
systemic regulation, having no recognition of limits to growth: deregulation is now a guiding tenet,
leading to privatization (corporatization) of the commons, including the rich
fruits of compound human learning over the centuries. Activity 2: Corporations have been designed as
psychopathic entities, designed to make $$ profit without consideration of
consequences. A century of hegemony from
incremental corporate influence now leaves Western governments dominantly
influenced by the corporate lobby and are unable to escape the interactivity
of this paradigm. Activity 3: The money system is basically corporate
controlled; now a debt based system that cannot tolerate negative or no
growth. Huge injections of more fiat
money now help keep the monopoly game going, causing a vast array of human
injustice (rich/poor gap, etc.) and wasted Gaian
resource throughput. Activity 4: The corporate driven media now orient
populations toward acceptance of, and joyful participation in, The Growth-syndrome. Human 1 (population): Nature’s
species generally procreate up to a limiting factor. Humans, with foresight and reason, could
control procreation within scientifically chosen limits, but significant
sociopolitical factors have prevented such large scale self-regulation. Some broad factors are: religion, cultural,
ignorance, and the general growth-syndrome now driving immigration and
pronatialism. Human
Nature: (80/20 guide lines: “most”, means about 80%) Human Nature 1: Most humans, given the opportunity
to become dishonest for personal or family gains, will do so, to some
degree. Human Nature 2: Most people will discount future
well-being for comfort now. Human Nature 3: Beliefs - Most people believe in a
god. Most people believe economic
growth is good. Human Nature 3a: Most people are highly programmable
especially if it starts at an early age, i.e., suicide bomber, compulsive
shopper, etc. Human Nature 4: Complexity issue – All people have
limits to the range of issues they can acknowledge and act upon: the apparent
relevance of information outside their aptitude limit or experience is
diminished: anxiety reduces an individual’s scope further. Human Nature 5: Compartmentalized mind: all people
can believe (time share) and act upon conflicting information, i.e.,
religious scientists. Human Nature 6: When possible, cognitive dissonance,
denial, avoidance, etc. are some expressions used to describe how individuals
shield themselves from ugly realities. Human Nature 7: An individual’s personal feeling of
responsibility for nasty events diminishes proportionally to the number of
linkages between them and the event: i.e.; to not attempt to stop one’s
government, even when one knows it participates in genocide or resource theft
from weaker nations; or to accept fiat money from stock market gains based on
corporate growth, even if the corporation destroys non renewable resources. Human Nature n:
We have many many more quirks. The current growth-syndrome infested paradigm has
driven human-activity beyond the Gaian system’s
(recently) historical normal limits: early stages of ecological/environmental
collapse started many decades ago and it accelerates as we dither. Nevertheless, the governments of virtually
all industrial nations measure their success as increased human-activity, as
measured by economic GDP. All measures of green-activity, including carbon
credits, renewable power, etc., cannot sustain the current level of
human-activity within the Gaian system, not to
mention anticipated growth. Because of the human-nature factors above, and the
fiat $$ based wealth (apparent wealth) driven political power, it is most
unlikely that corporate capitalism can be changed from within. It must be supplanted before total
collapse. “The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know,
that a financial element in the large centers has owned the Government ever
since the days of Andrew Jackson.” -
President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, November 23, 1933, in a letter to
Colonel Edward Mandell House Negative growth in human-activity will happen, either
in chaotic catastrophic free fall, or semi chaotic with a level of human
intervention. Our common future holds a variety of possibilities: Possibility 1: The Gaian
system is now in a fast runaway mode (slow to us) toward a fractal geological
point toward where neither humans nor any living thing could exist: or
something not quit so severe, but likely without large mammals. Possibility 2: One or more of the growth-syndrome’s
principle drivers could fail, and human civilization would tumble with rapid
human die-off and reduction of human-activity – perhaps to none – and the Gaian systemic changes might swing back toward a human
friendly environment in a century or two.
The trio of prime human-activity growth tools are, fossil energy
(mostly oil), population growth, and the fiat based economic/monetary numbers
system that lubricates the wheels of industry and political power. We know that peak oil is at hand; our
medical leaders expect a pandemic; the money masters wonder how long the
rigged monopoly game can hold together. Possibility 3:
Prior to advanced P1 or P2, technical specifications for a holistic
systemically designed form of human governance and regulation could be
developed. And perhaps some of the
vast array of today’s existing change agent organizations may find that with
slight modification to their goals and principles, their efforts could
dovetail in synchrony with other change agents, who now work in relative
isolation without a holistic goal (holistigoal). Some of these change-agents deal with: = lifeboat community organizations (i.e., Transition
Town movement); = economic reform advocates, including LETS (Local
Exchange Trading Systems); = population awareness organizations; = movements for regulation of corporations (seen
link to Yes article
above); Like the initial stages of any new structure the
linkage of these first change agents would begin as a frail relationship with
little synergy or influence. But if
time permits, the systemic interweave of trade, commerce and social feedback
toward stated goals, this localized system of negative growth in
human-activity could develop into viable connected islands of commerce and
activity guided by a new paradigm. Due to today’s vast technical and physical evidence
of Gaian system collapse, grass roots support of
P2a could be astonishingly exponential, especially by the majority of young
and old people who are not in a personal financial comfort zone: this comfort
zone is enabled by deficit spending future human well-being – Perhaps the
moral issue of our time? <<<<^^^^>>>> Technical
Specifications and Available Resources Guidance can come from dozens
of books with a Plan B sketch of the basics – maximum local autonomy at the
lowest practical level. The book, Gaian Democracies, draws together much
accumulated wisdom in this area and clarifies many aspects of this form of
local and higher levels of governance, which could be referred to as, Gaian Democracies. Papers by Shaun Turnbull and
others point to many corporations that run as cooperatives, and exposes the
myth that corporate throughput must grow.
This is simply a mater of regulation based
on holistic goals. It is likely that
most corporations that produce product or components needed to sustain the
electrical grid, and other essential products and services could operate just
fine within the paradigm of negative growth. (A priority list of these type
corporations would be an early part of the transition consideration.) Books such
as Worlds Wasted Wealth, by JW Smith illustrate the enormous waste in
both human and physical resources of the growth paradigm. They also show that the combination of
technology and energy flow, about 25% of the work force could provide food
and materials for the remaining 75%. The political wisdom of Henry George (190?) can
provide guidance that may be relevant to guidelines for ownership of land and
commons. Not covered in any book (known to me) is a means of
providing viable negative feedback on both human procreation and on resource
throughput as necessary (necessary for the past 100 years!). So this should likely be our initial focus. Monetary System and bioregionalism
“Economist
Milton Friedman once said, quote: "Only a crisis - actual or perceived -
produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken
depend on the ideas that are lying around." Unquote. A monetary means for exchange of goods and services
is essential for any complex society.
Appropriate design of the money system is key to dealing with all
(most of) the notes above on human-activity, and human-nature. While autonomous bioregionalism is
the basis of a survival paradigm, there needs to be an International
Standards Organization (ISO? or UN?) that will establish third party
auditable standards for many areas of local, regional and global issues,
i.e., use of the Gaian commons – oceans - air, and
money systems, wealth-factor assessments, trade systems, etc. The people of each bioregion (BR) must be
responsible for dealing with their own ecological footprint, and to work
toward control their own level of human activity: this includes their
population level and their per capita energy and resource throughput, and
they will even control of their BR$ dollars, in accordance with guidelines of
ISO standards. More below. Because no individual bioregion will have adequate
resources for a complex society, each bioregion must behave cooperatively
with other BRs (bioregions) for exchanges of goods and services. Trade sanctions will be the primary way to
deal with non compliant BRs or nations.
However, national and international defense forces will likely be need
for a few decades (like the UN Peacekeeping now). Because of energy cost for travel, most exchanges
will be local, but some industries must operate nationally and
internationally to be viable. BRs with
a mostly industrial base will depend on food and other products from
neighboring BRs, who need the industrial products. (Today there are growing change movements
toward localism, especially in produce.)
Strategic planning of corporations will be toward reduced throughput
by producing quality long-lasting product rather than anticipating more
throughput and planned obsolescence. Commodity Based Monetary System
Wealth
PerCapita
Dynamics
Unlike today’s fiat$$ money, a commodity based system
can be designed to relate directly to human well-being and Gaian stability.
As described in an earlier paper, PerCapita
Dynamics is the term given to the process. Briefly, it means that there is maximum
wealth per capita within (your) BR (bioregion) when local population is at a
scientifically determined optimum. In
periods of overpopulation there will be pressure from family, friends, neighbours and local government to lower fertility. For an expanded explanation, see: PerCapita Dynamics and Wealth Factors at the bottom of this
draft document. Also explained is how the electronic debit card can have
enough transparency to deal with human foibles, such as described in Human Nature1. The unemployed are redeployed Minimum wage for all?
As JW Smith writes in World’s Wasted Wealth,
about 90% of the people now involved in banking and the financial monopoly
world would be redundant in a viable world.
Also, reduction in human-activity would cause many industries
(logging/lumber/mining/automotive, etc.) to vastly reduce labor
requirements. Therefore, regional
social structure will be necessary to provide minimum wage for all, but with additional
wealth benefit for individuals who share new loads, such as in the farming,
where labor requirements will no doubt rise as a result of peak oil and the
need to end fossil fuel usage.
Guideline standards need be developed to accommodate this regional
social infrastructure, however, it is likely that each BR may deal with these
issues differently. From http://www.magma.ca/~donchism/SNIGWEB/PerCapitaDyna.htm Wealth Factor based Per Capita
Money - $PCM =$PCM will have a primary
characteristics of a commodity-based currency system, but it will require
some fiat (elastic) characteristics through loans, for periods when commodity
balance cannot be met. Some components
of the commodity will be physically measurable and some are partially
abstract and will be determined by clearly defined standards based on human
wants and needs. = Each Region will have its own
$PCM (currency). (Region is used here
for simplified explanation – but could
be BioRegion level) = A branch of Global Government will establish
global standards to be used by each Region on Earth to determine the Region’s
Wealth Factor assessment (one size might not fit all in reality, so adjustments
can be made). = In order to prevent bias or
cheating, Wealth Factor assessments will be audited annually by a third party
audit team. = A negative, or credit balance
means that the Human Activity in your Region is beyond sustainable limits, i.e: Gaian well-being
is at risk. A zero balance means
your Region is at relative human Carrying Capacity (CC), i.e: Gaian systems
are renewable. Debit means more
wealth per capita within the Region, and/or your Region could lend money to a
needy neighboring Region, i.e: Gaia systems are
gaining equity in biodiversity, forests, surplus renewable energy, etc. = A Regional zero balance also
means that that the Regional wealth is such that the average person could
have enough money for a comfortable life.
However, some individuals will have much more, some much less in a
significantly modified capitalist or socialist system. Some people will be at the minimum wage
while others have reached a maximum in accumulated wealth – the monopoly game
continues while this player can retire. = Money necessary to operate industry and commerce
can be added or subtracted from a Region’s monetary system as a credit or
debit. The desired goal of governance
is at least a balances, but debit is even better, i.e. more wealth per capita
for the people of the Region and the Region does not need to borrow $PCM from
another Region. = $PCM will be electronic only money, i.e. no
currency, only a debit-like card. This
will help prevent petty theft, big theft and black market cross boarder
dealing and illegal immigration. But
for convenience, some Regions may wish to float a small amount of their
wealth in a local currency. = The balances within individual or corporate bank
accounts are available, with relatively easy access, to selected government
agencies. While this may seem to some
as a Big Brother is Watching approach, citizens with nothing to hide,
have nothing to hide. What’s the
problem? = Each Region has control over immigration. Illegal immigrants will not have access to
regional $PCM. If you want to emigrate
to another Region, you will need permission and documents from that
Region. = The $PCM dollars of RegionA
cannot be spent directly in RegionB or C. When purchases are made by a person or
corporation in RegionA, from a person or
corporation in RegionB, a debit transfer is made at
the Regional level, increasing the loan (or decreasing the credit) of RegionA to RegionB. After the transaction the wealth/capita of RegionA is lower: everyone is systemically affected to
some degree. Any region may place
limits on inter-regional spending. = The value of a $PCM dollars of RegionA
is of equal in value to a $PCM dollars of RegionB,
however, a cup of coffee in a Canadian Region might require more $PCM dollars
that a cup of coffee in Brazil. ``` The total wealth of each bioregion is determined by
several factors: A: + The amount of renewable energy produced
by the Region, and the
regional potential to produce renewable energy. B: + The amount of renewable resources,
farmland, forests, fisheries, etc. C: + The amount of water which can be used by
humans. D: + The amount of food which can be produced
sustainably. E: + The amount green space for biodiversity
and human leisure. F: + Facilities for high tech research and
development. G: + Industrial capability for production of
recyclable goods. H: + The quality and quantity of human
services such as medicine, education, tourism and the
arts. I: - Dependence on goods or services from
other Regions. J: - The amount of non-renewable energy used. X1: ? Regional human population. X2: ? Current Regional human fertility rate. A flourishing civilization requires a blend of A
through H. Most categories are
controllable within limits - some limits are imposed by nature, some by
intelligent assessment. The balancing act:
With lower population there will be more natural, renewable resources
per person. ~In A,B,C,D,E fewer humans = greater wealth per
capita ... but In F,G,H, with a larger number of humans
there will be greater variety of minds and manpower with a greater likelihood
of technological and medial advancement.
And it will be easier to amortization product development cost and to
incorporate production efficiency and to sustain national defense (necessary
until World Governance is achieved), and for global projects such as space
exploration after World Governance. It
requires large numbers of humans to sustain a modern society with medical
services, educational facilities, computer industries, research facilities,
the arts and entertainment, etc., the more human talent there is to draw
upon, the better. ~ In F,G,H, more human contribute to greater wealth
potential. ~ I and J are negative factors regardless of
population. ~ Optimum population and fertility rate will be
determined by the other factors and will be updated at least annually but
perhaps continuously, like automatic inventory control. Other Considerations
= Likely no Region could sustain an industrial
society alone or without trade. One
statement above said: >A zero balance means your Region is at relative
Carrying Capacity (CC).< Relative,
in this case means, for example, that an urban area has traded credits for
manufacturing, universities, hospitals, with one or many more rural areas or
other urban areas. Whereas, the rural
area, without manufacturing capabilities, provides produce for the city. The accounting would be fairly complex, yet
relatively simple compared coordinating a large airline, or today’s
derivative trading balances, for example.
(In tough cases, Arthur Anderson Inc. could handle the audit ;-) = Today, thousands of individuals and groups decry
the capitalist thrust for expanding/globalizing economies, representing the
“A” of Human Activity. BUT
human procreation considerations in Western societies are considered to be a
very private affair. This reproductive
taboo needs to be broken. Common sense
tells us that exponential growth of either “H” or “A” in a finite planet
cannot continue indefinitely and both must become societal controllable
variables. The introduction of $PCM
would make procreation everybody’s concern.
Even aunt Matilda or Grannie could provide
valuable feedback here because their personal wealth is a measure of the
community wealth. = Once the voodoo effect of GM (Global Moneteocracy)
is broken, sensible taxation and subsidy legislation can be introduced by
existing governments at National and/or Regional level to expose the now
buried true societal cost in the use of fossil fuels. = Once the
voodoo effect of GM broken, sensible ecological protection regulation can be
introduced by existing governments at National and/or Regional levels. No longer can they say, “But it’s bad for
the economy!” = A great deal of Wealth Factor data is available on
the web today, perhaps all that would be needed to determine $PCM on a
National scale which, in a practical sense, would be a good place to
start. For example, Work by Mathis Wackernagel et. al;
http://www.ecouncil.ac.cr/rio/focus/report/english/footprint/ Bruce Sundquist http://www.alltel.net/~bsundquist1/ There is plenty of data on energy and
demography etc, = Based on the Ecological Footprint data that now
covers 80% of world population, it is likely that the global sum of Regional
credits and debits will show that there is a global deficit of total $PCM,
and that a reduction in global HA should start immediately (Ecologcal Footpring analysis
indicate three more planets would be required to sustain our current
footprint). A sever deficit of
$PCM would prohibit existing civil infrastructure from functioning; therefore
a temporary loan is necessary to keep things running. From a para
above, it seems that $8 Trillion would be needed to keep the infrastructure
running. A panel of experts (?) who
are familiar with both accounting procedures, and who have fairly broad
understanding of how the world works, will set the standards for factoring
the Wealth Factors data to show the global optimum target level of HA. To adjust for the deficit the global bank
would need to create a special loan, a loan against future generations, in
order to have enough $PCM to operate the global infrastructure today. This loan would be distributed to Regions
though their national government to avoid sudden discontinuity in
business. It would be up to the
Regional leaders to determine how best to meet it’s
optimum HA (after the standards/formula are prepared for the Regional level),
and how to barter with local Regions for Wealth Factor credit swaps, to best
balance their books. But the loan from
the global bank would remain a separate entry and it would slowly diminish
then vanish in future when global target HA was met; i.e. when our Ecological
Footprint could be contained on one planet Earth. Today’s deficit spending of natural
resources is steeling our children’s future and we have no apparent way to
stop. At least the $PCM loan that we
need today will be recognized as a repayable loan, our children are counting
on it! = Instead of
stock market news, the media would fist give the Wealth Factor statistics so
that all citizens would be cognizant of regional heading and goals and of
their personal responsibility to future generations to work toward that end. = As new
political movement begins to gain strength (Gaian
Democracy?), a shadow economic system could be established, and begin to
create $PCM for local commodity or labor exchanges. Existing LETS may convert to this
system. And this process could grow in
steps. = As the conversion gains momentum the economics
department of Gaian Democracies could offer an
exchange of GM$ for $PCM to individuals or corporations at some rate of
exchange, a rate of exchange that would diminish as time goes by (to promote
rapid conversion). = As the popularity of $PCM grows, and dynamic
balance begins, states or countries that fail to participate will have fewer
and fewer trading partners. They will
either die-out, or join in. <<<<>>>> The ideas
for a new monetary/social system are very much like those in a paper by
Rodney Shakespeare and Peter Challen, presented in
Malaysia ’02 at a Global Justice
Movement
conference. See: http://www.globaljusticemovement.net/articles/malaysia-pc-0211.htm <<<<>>>> Gaian
Democracies: The term, Global Monetocracy (GM) was
introduced in the book called Gaian Democracies, by
John Jopling and Roy Madron. GM refers to today’s neo conservative capitalism
and its control of the fiat based money system. The basic outlined of the book is at the
author’s web Gaian
Democracies <<<<>>>> |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|